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Economic Survey warns of fragile global outlook for 2026, CEA says instability is now the base case

The Economic Survey warns of reduced global economic resilience entering 2026 due to geopolitical tensions and financial vulnerabilities. Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran outlines three scenarios, with ‘managed disorder’ and a ‘disorderly multipolar world’ each carrying a 40-45% probability, highlighting increased instability and a higher risk of systemic shocks.

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